My previous blog post summarized how I presently see the COVID-19 pandemic situation. This one is my attempt to portray how I see this situation unfolding over the next couple of years. Again, my view is a general, big picture one of a curious, informed layperson who recognizes the great deal of uncertainty associated with predicting the future based on limited data. I don’t hold myself out to be an expert in any of the areas in which I make predictions. It’s important to restate the motivation behind me trying to envision what may happen. My two main objectives are, 1) to make better decisions as an individual, and; 2) to participate responsibly in society from an informed, rational basis. I try to limit my analyses and conclusions to those that are most relevant to these objectives. So, here is how I presently see things unfolding. COVID-19 mitigation and outcomes will vary tremendously between and within countries. Widespread social distancing shutdowns currently in place will be relaxed around the world. They simply are not economically or socio-politically feasible as a long-term mitigation. As social distancing is relaxed and the virus continues to spread around the world, there will be waves […]